The Cristal Baller: Arkansas

Welcome to the Cristal Baller, where we make wholly unsubstantiated predictions on how all of the SEC teams will be performing in the 2009 season. Just like in Hollywood casting, couch time is rewarded with preferential treatment.

Arkansas’ 2008 season was marked with some highs (beating LSU at the last minute) and some lows (Losing to Miss St.). They got beaten by Kentucky, but also beat Auburn and continued a ridiculous win streak at home against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Bobby Petrino’s offense was inconsistent under quarterback Casey Dick, and his defense was even more so, giving up an average of 33 points per game (ouch).

Now I may be crazy (I’m on pills for that), but I see Arkansas as the dark horse for the SEC west. And if they get into the SEC Championship game, who knows? Maybe they will murder Florida’s first and second string players and have a shot at the title. Look for Petrino’s offense to finally find some footing under Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett’s experienced hand, and look for their defense to give up less points because, frankly, it would be hard to give up more than they did last year.

Season Predictions: 8-4

Arkansas 35 Missouri St. 17
I don’t see the Razorback offense having any significant trouble with the Bears, but I do see their defense having a shaky start. If they can shut out Missouri St., it would provide a lot of confidence to a defense who is going to take a week off and then face Georgia.

Arkansas 31 Georgia 28
This score may look confusing, but I think Arkansas’ defense matches up just slightly better against UGA’s young offense under QB Joe Cox, than UGA’s defense does against Arkansas’ offense. I’m looking for a tight game with a last minute drive for a winning FG by the Razorbacks. The fact that this is a home game tips the scale toward the Razorbacks.

Arkansas 27 Alabama 24
Upset alert! I realize that this game is being played in Bryant-Denny. I realize that I am on record saying that Alabama’s defense is going to be one of the best in the country. Even with both of those facts, I see Arkansas catching Bama off guard after two cupcake games against FIU and North Texas. Look for another close game, where the Crimson Tide’s young offense leaves the door open for the Razorbacks to steal a win.

Arkansas 24 Texas A&M 14
I know that Arkansas didn’t exactly have a stellar year in 2008, but they still played in the SEC. On the other hand, A&M went 4-8 in the Big 12 South, against the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech, who were do-si-do-ing around the top 5 for half the season. I still like Arkansas to top the Aggies using guile and well placed Oklahoma jokes.

Arkansas 21 Auburn 14
Shut up. I don’t even want to hear it. I’m trying to be honest here, but after last year’s 2nd half meltdown against Arkansas, I really want to predict my Tigers to win here. Reality is a cruel mistress, and she won’t let me pick the inferior team in this matchup. Auburn’s defense is good enough to hold Arkansas off, but they will wear down when Auburn’s offense keeps them on the field too long.

Florida 48 Arkansas 14
If I’m correct up to this point, the Razorbacks will be riding an ESPN driven hype train into this matchup with the Gators. That train is going to derail in a horrific crash that will claim even the women and children, leaving only charred bodies and tears in its wake. Florida has too many weapons and LB Brandon Spikes may actually eat a Razorback offensive lineman in the first quarter, just to prove a point.

Ole Miss 28 Arkansas 17
The pundits in the local and national media seem very high on Ole Miss this year. While I don’t think they will be able to surprise as many teams as they did last year, I do think they are legitimately decent (when they are able to keep their roster out of car crashes and the back seat of cop cars). I think the Rebels’ offensive talent will overwhelm a Razorback defense that is still using an inflatable donut to sit down after last week’s run in with Florida.

Arkansas 31 Eastern Michigan 17
After being beaten up and down by Ole Miss and Florida, the Razorbacks get to vent some frustration on a directional school. The only downside to this game is that no matter how cold it is in Fayetteville on the day of the game, the Eagles will think that they’re playing in mild summer weather.

South Carolina 24 Arkansas 21
While I don’t see the Gamecocks having a stellar season, they are still a very dangerous team. They don’t have the benefit of being a “trap” game on Arkansas’ schedule (like they do on Bama’s), but I still see Spurrier’s squad having just enough to edge out the Razorbacks by a FG.

Arkansas 35 Troy 28
Troy almost had one of those “signature victories for a mid-tier program” last year against LSU, but the Tigers stormed back in the 4th quarter to give them a loss. Something like this should happen again, if I had to guess. Troy will put up some serious offensive numbers, but their defense is not good enough to keep the Razorbacks out of the endzone. And don’t forget the home advantage, as drunk pig fans get surly when you score in their stadium, so the Trojan offense will be dodging bottles of George Dickle’s finest as well as defenders.

Arkansas 24 Miss St. 13
Petrino has had a few years to get things going in Arkansas. Dan Mullen is in his first year as a head coach, and has the unenviable job of “turning around” a sub-par (I’m being kind) program. Survey says: Arkansas can get a W playing their scrimmage squad.

LSU 31 Arkansas 14
Don’t expect a repeat of 2008’s last minute theatrics. LSU is going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder because of last year’s game, and because I’m guessing they are going to have a few losses already and this game may have some bearing on who heads to Atlanta. I still don’t think LSU is going to be as good as most of the pundits are predicting, but their defense will leave the Razorback offense smelling corn dogs after the hits they’ll be giving out.