The Cristal Baller: Alabama

Welcome to the Cristal Baller, where we make wholly unsubstantiated predictions on how all of the SEC teams will be performing in the 2009 season. Just like in Hollywood casting, couch time is rewarded with preferential treatment.

[Editor’s note: Kirk and I switched off UA and AU because it’s more fun that way]

Last season, the Alabama Crimson Tide was the semi-Cinderella story of the SEC, going undefeated in the regular season, and losing their last two games in a solid effort against eventual National Champ Florida, and a flat performance against Utah in the Sugar Bowl.

This season, Alabama’s defense looks FILTHY good. Like top 3 in the nation good. They return almost all of their starters, who now have the benefit of another season’s worth of experience under their belt. Offense is the big question mark, having to replace LT (not an easy task since Andre Smith was probably the best LT in the country) and C, while also slotting in new QB Greg McElroy. Look for the Tide to have a rough time offensively (first year QBs in the SEC don’t historically fare very well, especially with two starting OL replacements), but more than compensate with their defensive performance, because we all know defense is what really wins games in the SEC.

Season Predictions: 9-3

Alabama 17 Virginia Tech 14
Look for Bama’s offense to sputter a bit here as they try and get things going against a solid VA Tech squad with an experienced offense. Alabama’s defense will be the key here, more than covering for any offensive miscues.

Alabama 28 Florida International 10
It’s a gimme game. FIU has gotten better in the last few years, but they won’t be able to hang. I’m calling 10 points for FIU because in the 4th, Saban will be putting fans in on D.

Alabama 31 North Texas 14
We’ll call this one “generic sequel to the FIU game” and pretty much be done with it. What the hell, I’m going to predict Bama to have a defensive TD this game. Now it’s interesting.

Arkansas 27 Alabama 24
Everyone is calling Arkansas the dark horse of the SEC west, and I’m inclined to agree. Petrino’s offense looks like it poised to finally take off. I think after two slouch games, the Tide get edged out in the 4th by a field goal.

Alabama 24 Kentucky 10
Kentucky. Fear. These two words do not go together. Much like the words “funny” and “Carlos Mencia”. Again, I’m giving the Wildcats 10 junk points in the 4th because that kind of stuff just happens.

Ole Miss 21* Alabama 17
This prediction has an asterisk beside it because I’m assuming that no more Ole Miss players are going to be arrested for drug possession/DUI or reinjure themselves in car accidents than have already done so. I would give this to Bama, but it’s a home game for the Rebels, who will probably be a bust on the season (they have a tradition of choking) but will somehow pull it together for a home game against the Tide.

South Carolina 17 Alabama 14
This is without a doubt a trap game for Bama. Crammed between Ole Miss and Elaine Kiffin’s squad, Spurrier’s Cocks are in the perfect position for an upset. I think this will be a defensive battle, and could just as easily reverse the scores having Bama win by a FG. For some reason I have a feeling that Spurrier is going to get away with one this year.

Alabama 35 Tennessee 0
This is going to be ugly. I see Bama’s D venting two weeks worth of losses (or at least one, I don’t think they’ll get by both Ole Miss and SC unscathed) on the poor Volunteers. I see this one playing out like last year’s Iron Bowl, only far worse (if that’s possible).

Alabama 28 LSU 21
Bama home game + close win last year + LSU being overrated = Bama beating another team with a cat mascot. I attribute the bulk of LSU’s points to a too-late comeback attempt in the 4th quarter.

Alabama 31 Mississippi St. 6
Dan Mullen is going to have a rough year. Thankfully no one expects him to do anything but get drummed this year. Look for him to meet those expectations in this game.

Alabama 24 Chattanooga 3
Another gimme game. The lower than average score against a low tier team is entirely due to my expectation that Saban will be resting starters prior to the Iron Bowl.

Alabama 21 Auburn 14
And speaking of the Iron Bowl, I look for Auburn to put up a better showing than last year. Ultimately this game will come down to the fact that Bama was smart enough to pick a starting QB in the spring, and the OL and the QB should have enough experience under their belts to win, even in Jordan-Hare.